ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. — And then there were four.
Marist men’s basketball won a wild MAAC Tournament Quarterfinal against Quinnipiac last night to set up a semifinal with No. 1 Merrimack at 6 p.m. tonight. The winner will go to the championship game on Tuesday at 9 p.m.
The Red Foxes already had their work cut out for them to beat Quinnipiac, as they persevered through the loss of several key players due to injury. The Bobcats were a good team — Merrimack is even better. Marist lost both of its regular-season matchups with the Warriors, including a 25-point loss on Feb. 12, the biggest of the Red Foxes’ season.
But March is the time for surprises, and Marist will certainly enter the game believing it can live to see Tuesday.
What Makes Merrimack Dangerous
The Warriors are good at a lot of things. Since conference play began, they are second in the MAAC in both offensive and defensive efficiency, first in turnover rate on both sides of the ball, second in effective field goal percentage on offense and defense and second in 3-point shooting.
Like Quinnipiac, Merrimack has its share of stars. Freshman guard Kevair Kennedy took the conference by storm en route to the MAAC Player of the Year award. Junior guard Ernest Shelton joined him on the All-MAAC First Team while junior forward KC Ugwuakazi won Defensive Player of the Year.
Kennedy leads the conference in scoring at 18.6 points per game, is fourth in assists per game at 4.2 and fourth in steals per game at 1.8. Shelton supplements Kennedy with 16 points per game and 35.2% shooting from deep. Ugwuakazi is averaging only five points per game, but on a very efficient 61.5% shooting. Of course, he wreaks havoc defensively with a conference-best two blocks per game.
The Warriors can also get offense from elsewhere. Sophomore guard Tye Dorset averages 11.5 points, graduate student guard Andres Marrero averages 8.3 and junior forward Todd Brogna six.
In conference play, Merrimack has scored 24.5% of its points from the free throw line, the highest rate in the MAAC. Kennedy and Shelton have an especially clear knack for getting to the line. Kennedy has taken 264 free throws this season — the second-most in the country and over 100 more than any other MAAC player — while Shelton has the fourth-most at 151.
What Marist Can Do to Win
First and foremost, the Red Foxes need to do what they can to keep Merrimack off the free-throw line. Not only does Merrimack score a lot from the line, but Marist has a tendency to give up a lot of free throw attempts.
In MAAC play, 21.5% of Marist’s opponents’ points have come on free throws, the fourth-highest rate in the conference. Sometimes, the Red Foxes can get themselves in foul trouble; they did just that last night against Quinnipiac, but the Bobcats missed 11 of their 32 free throw attempts in what turned out to be a two-point game.
The Bobcats were a poor free-throw shooting team. Merrimack is not.
The Warriors shoot 78.9% from the line, a top 10 rate in the nation. Marist cannot afford to let Merrimack dictate the game at the charity stripe.
On the offensive side, the Red Foxes will need sophomore guard Justin Menard to continue his run of electric play. Since senior guard Elijah Lewis hurt his knee on Feb. 7, Menard has put Marist on his back. If he stays hot and junior guard Jadin Collins-Roberts continues his tendency to rise in the playoffs, Marist can have a shot.
Additionally, and perhaps obviously, the Red Foxes need to keep the stars in check. Marist did a good job of that against Quinnipiac — senior forward Amarri Monroe had 18 points and sophomore forward Grant Randall 28, but the Red Foxes held each of the Bobcats’ three other All-MAAC players to seven points or fewer.
Between all of Merrimack’s stars, someone is going to have a big game; Marist needs to make sure not all of them do.
Edited by Ben Leeds
Photo by Jaylen Rizzo
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